Introduction
Suppose a fortune teller makes 20 predictions.
Among them:
- 17 predictions are completely wrong.
- 3 predictions happen to be right.
A few months later, when asked, many people will only remember:
"He was really accurate."
Meanwhile, the 17 wrong predictions almost completely disappear from their memory.
This isn't necessarily because the person is intentionally ignoring the truth.
It is a very common psychological phenomenon known as Confirmation Bias.
This is one of the most widely studied cognitive biases in psychology and cognitive science.
What is Confirmation Bias?
Confirmation Bias is the human tendency to:
- Pay more attention to information that supports our existing beliefs;
- Remember evidence that aligns with our thoughts;
- Ignore or downplay contradictory information.
In other words:
We do not view the world completely objectively.
The brain always tends to seek out things that confirm what we already believe.
A Simple Example
A person believes that:
"Black cats bring bad luck."
In one month:
- They encounter black cats 10 times;
- Only 1 time does something unfortunate happen.
Months later, that person only remembers:
"That time I saw the black cat, I was really unlucky."
The other nine times are gradually forgotten.
Why Does This Happen?
The brain has to process an enormous amount of information every single day.
If we were to remember absolutely everything with equal importance, we would quickly become overloaded.
Therefore, the brain tends to prioritize information that:
- Leaves a strong impression;
- Is emotionally significant;
- Fits existing beliefs;
- Helps construct a consistent narrative.
This is a natural cognitive mechanism, not a sign of low intelligence.
Confirmation Bias in Fortune-Telling
Suppose a fortune teller says:
- You will change jobs this year.
- A benefactor will help you.
- You will travel far.
- There will be a sad event in your family.
- You will have luck with money.
- Someone will betray you.
- You will have a minor illness.
- There will be good news.
- Someone from your past will return.
- You will achieve a major goal.
A year later, if just two or three of these things happen, many people will say:
"The master's predictions were spot on."
Meanwhile, the predictions that did not come true are rarely mentioned again.
Confirmation Bias in Everyday Life
This phenomenon doesn't just appear in fortune-telling.
1. Investing
A person believes:
"Stock A always goes up."
When the stock goes up:
"I knew it."
When the stock goes down:
"It's just a temporary correction."
2. Politics
Supporters of a politician often read news that favors that person and easily cast doubt on opposing sources.
3. Brands
If you believe that:
"Brand X is very durable."
A single time the product works well will be remembered for a long time.
Times when it malfunctions are easily dismissed as exceptions.
4. Sports
Fans usually remember their favorite team's great matches and rarely talk about the games they played poorly.
5. Relationships
If you already have a favorable impression of someone, you tend to interpret their actions in a positive light.
If you have a grudge, the exact same action is easily interpreted negatively.
15 Common Examples
- Only remembering the times the fortune teller guessed right.
- Only sharing predictions that came true.
- Only reading news that shares your viewpoint.
- Only watching videos that reinforce your beliefs.
- Only remembering the times a lucky charm worked.
- Believing that a lucky object always brings good results.
- Only recounting experiences that align with your perspective.
- Assuming the person you like is always reasonable.
- Underestimating contradictory evidence.
- Only seeking out articles that agree with you.
- Only remembering the times your intuition was correct.
- Attributing every success to a prior "omen."
- Ignoring times when predictions failed.
- Selectively filtering memories based on emotions.
- Believing that your long-held beliefs are always right because they have "been verified many times."
How is Confirmation Bias Different from the Barnum Effect?
These two phenomena often go hand in hand but are not the same.
The Barnum Effect makes you feel:
"This statement describes me perfectly."
Confirmation Bias makes you:
Only remember the correct statements and forget the wrong ones.
For example:
A fortune teller gives you 30 Barnum-style observations.
You find 10 statements to be very accurate.
Your brain will memorize those 10 statements and gradually forget the other 20.
The combination of these two effects — along with Cold Reading — creates the illusion that the other person "guesses incredibly accurately."
How to Mitigate Confirmation Bias?
Here are some simple ways:
- Write down all predictions before knowing the outcome.
- Evaluate both the correct and the incorrect times.
- Actively seek out contradictory evidence.
- Ask yourself: "If the result were the opposite, would I accept it?"
- Do not rely solely on instances that leave a strong impression.
For instance:
If someone claims to make very accurate predictions, write down 100 of their predictions and check them after some time.
This approach is much more objective than just remembering the few times they were right.
Is Confirmation Bias a Bad Thing?
No.
It is a natural feature of human cognition.
In many situations, it helps us process information faster and maintain a stable worldview.
The problem only arises when we allow this bias to make us ignore critical evidence or jump to unobjective conclusions.
Conclusion
Confirmation bias does not make a prediction true.
It makes us more likely to notice, remember, and repeat cases that fit our beliefs, while downplaying or forgetting cases that do not.
Understanding Confirmation Bias helps us evaluate predictions, personal experiences, and claims of "spot-on readings" much more rationally—basing our judgments on the entire body of evidence rather than just the standout examples.